Results

In the period immediately after the Covid 19 economic shutdown there was a huge surge in the demand for truck freight due to macroeconomic stimulus payments and a temporary turn by consumers away from buying services and towards buying goods. What happened to the existing patterns of job gains and job losses across the for-hire trucking industry? This paper uses data from the Business Dynamics Statistics program at the Bureau of Labor Statistics to look at the patterns of job gain and job loss across the for-hire trucking industry, comparing March 2002 through March 2020 with the following year (i.e., through March 2021). We find
the impacts of high demand in 2021 are greater for younger firms than older ones (controlling for size), and that the effects on job gains are smaller than those on job losses in absolute magnitude.

Pursuant to a Congressional mandate, the Consensus Studies Division of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine convened the “Committee for a Study of the Impacts of Alternative Compensation Methods on Truck Driver Retention and Safety Performance,” which examined evidence and the scientific literature for two years. Co-authors of the resulting report include two committee members who participate in T&T, Stephen Burks of UMN Morris and Jason Miller of Michigan State, along with the rest of the committee and key NASEM staff members. Consensus Division reports are refereed and represent the official position of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, scientific advisors to the nation by Congressional charter since 1863. 
 

Key findings: 

1. The data do not permit a valid scientific evaluation of the relationship between long-distance driver pay/working conditions and driver safety performance.
2. There have been both short-term shortages and short-term over-supplies of long-distance truckers in the truckload segment, but the industry perception of a long-term shortage is mistaken and is explained by the fact that, for structural reasons, driver turnover is so persistently high among long-distance drivers in this segment that firms must always try to hire even when they are contracting their fleets.
3. Considering firms with at least 100 trucks, an independent analysis of 14 years of Federal crash data shows on average larger firms are safer, even though industry reports show them to have higher turnover.

Why was the recovery of for-hire trucking industry employment very different across different states in the U.S. after the economic shutdown that occurred early in the Covid-19 pandemic? This paper uses data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to see how heterogeneity in recovery of industries that generate demand for truck freight movements varied by state affected trucking employment. We find that states that experienced larger declines in natural resource extraction saw slower trucking recovery, while those with warehousing growth or port activity recovered more quickly.

On average, 27% of all jobs in for-hire trucking are shuffled across firms each year as firms open, expand, contract, and close. This paper uses data from the Business Dynamics Statistics program at the Bureau of Labor Statistics to look at the patterns of job gain and job loss across the for-hire trucking industry from 1995 to 2019. We find it the changes in young firms (controlling for size) are much greater than those in older firms, and that changes in manufacturing employment are a primary moderator of these dynamics.  

The American Trucking Associations (ATA) have called out a persistent shortage of truck drivers in the long-distance “truckload” (TL) segment of the industry since the middle 1980s, or for 40 years.  This paper examines the ATA claims and finds them unconvincing.  An alternative explanation was offered in Burks and Monaco (2019)[INSERT LINK TO PAPER ENTRY BELOW], that it is the structurally high driver turnover in long-distance TL jobs that causes the mistaken perception of a shortage. Firms that have to keep hiring even when they are contracting their fleets naturally perceive a shortage. A formal model of cost-minimization in a long-distance TL firm is proposed, which captures the idea that there is a trade-off between the costs of running trucks inefficiently (to get drivers home regularly so they don’t quit), paying wages high enough (to keep drivers who dislike the job conditions from quitting), and paying turnover costs (finding qualified replacements for quitters and training them). The solutions to this model show that—because of the tradeoff with the other two costs--high turnover may be lower in total cost, and they provide some unexpected insights on the effects of possible policy interventions.

This paper evaluates the effect of an employer-mandated obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) diagnosis and treatment program on non-OSA-program trucker medical insurance claim costs. The results suggest that the OSA program generates substantial savings in these costs.

This paper uses independent diagnostic data to analyze the screening effectiveness of the pre-Registry commercial driver's medical exam (CDME) for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and its sensitivity for hypertension. Certification lengths were also analyzed where relevant. Findings demonstrate that the pre-Registry CDME was ineffective in screening commercial drivers for OSA. Screening was better for hypertension, but incorrectly long certification lengths were given to many drivers with evidence of hypertension.

This paper analyzes a weekly estimate of the pay miles individuals expect to run in the following week in a large sample of new-to-the industry truck drivers who are paid by the mile. We find that those who are overconfident about their future pay are less likely to quit in a high-turnover setting, which increases their profitability for their employer.

This paper examines the structure of the overall truck driver labor market using nationally representative data from the Census Bureau and focuses on the evidence about movements into and out of the occupation of heavy and tractor-trailer truck driver. It finds that the market for truck drivers works about as well as those for other blue-collar occupations, and that truckers come from, and leave to, occupations that make sense, and that occupational changes respond to economic incentives in the expected manner. It suggests that the primary source of the industry view that there is a long-term shortage of drivers is the fact that one part of the industry (long distance truckload) which employs about a fifth of all drivers of heavy trucks, has persistently high turnover at the level of firms (as opposed to changes of occupation), due to special conditions that require a separate analysis.

Firms are often reluctant to offer free training that is general enough that the skills can be used elsewhere, since workers may quit before the cost of training is recovered. This paper uses data from a truckload motor carrier to analyze the effects of two types of contracts in which new-to-the-industry drivers assume a debt for basic driver training that is paid off by working for the firm for a specified period. Both contracts reduce post-training quits, especially near the end of the contract. The results suggest that contracts improve firm profits and may reduce worker welfare. 

A paper using data on trainee truckers to examine the relationships between personality factors and economic preferences (risk and time preferences) and to then compare how both sets of characteristics do in predicting trucker outcomes such as body mass index, smoking behavior, credit score, job persistence, and heavy truck crashes.

This paper analyzes the relationship between adherence to sleep apnea treatment among drivers with this disease and the driver's risk of having a preventable "DOT-reportable" (i.e. serious) crash, in the context of a trucking firm's internal program to screen, diagnose, and treat sleep apnea. Drivers with sleep apnea who refuse treatment are found to have 4 to 5 times the risk of a serious preventable crash than healthy controls.  

Features former NBA star Shaquille O’Neal and has cameos of one of the Harvard Med co-authors of the T&T paper above, C.A. Czeisler, MD, Ph.D.

The results of this paper, along with some comments on the work life of truck drivers by Prof. Burks, are featured in this documentary about sleep apnea in truckers.

A paper about overconfidence based on two cognitive skills tests taken by 1,016 trainee truckers and estimates of their personal performance on the tests made by the truckers. An accepted result in psychology is that many individuals overestimate their ability relative to others. Three theories about why this occurs are tested, and the theory that the explanation is a desire to send positive signals to others does best. 

A paper based on following the UMM student control group for the large sample of truckers using the protocol described in the 2008 book chapter “Using Behavioral Economic Field Experiments at a Large Firm.” The “proactive” aspect of Conscientiousness (“Big Five” personality trait) predicted graduation and GPA success. A planning measure predicted graduation, as it did for trainee trucker job success. 

This paper analyzes the benefit to firms of hiring through employee referrals using data from three industries, call centers, high tech, and trucking. The trucking analysis shows that new hires referred by an existing employee have lower crash rates and lower turnover than other new hires. 

A paper about overconfidence based on two cognitive skills tests taken by 1,016 trainee truckers and estimates of their personal performance on the tests made by the truckers. An accepted result in psychology is that many individuals overestimate their ability relative to others. Three theories about why this occurs are tested, and the theory that the explanation is a desire to send positive signals to others does best.

This paper compares the behavior of trainee truckers to that of two control groups—UMN Morris students and Morris-area adults—in an experiment measuring the willingness to cooperate with anonymous others at a net financial cost to oneself. Contrary to prior literature, self-selection of adult subjects into the experiment does not increase (nor change at all) the level of non-selfish behavior, and student subjects exhibit considerably more self-interested behavior either adult sample. 

A paper analyzing the relationship between the body mass index (BMI) of trainee truckers and their risk of a vehicle accident on the job, controlling for demographic characteristics and operational factors that affect the exposure to risk. Drivers with BMI >30 had an approximately 55% higher risk of crashes.
News story about this paper by the journal Science: “Big Truckers Run Bigger Risks”.

A paper on the relationship between the cognitive skills of new-to-the-industry trainee truckers and their economic preferences, their social perceptions and preferences, and their behavior and job success.  Cognitive skills are associated with all outcomes and have an especially large association with staying on the job for the year necessary to pay off the debt incurred for driver training. 

A paper on the relationship between the cognitive skills of new-to-the-industry trainee truckers and their economic preferences, their social perceptions and preferences, and their behavior and job success.  Cognitive skills are associated with all outcomes and have an especially large association with staying on the job for the year necessary to pay off the debt incurred for driver training. 

This paper describes the industry context, the research questions, and the research design of the initial phases of the Truckers & Turnover Project. The two main subparts are a statistical case study of a cooperating trucking firm, and the design of data collection using eleven instruments (behavioral economic experiments, psychological measures, and surveys) that was eventually used with 1,065 trainee truckers, 100 UMN Morris students, and 94 Morris-area adults.  

Using data originally collected by the Interstate Commerce Commission (which was closed in 1995), this paper analyzed the patterns of over-the-road (OTR) driver pay from 1977 through 1986, which spans the changes brought by economic deregulation in 1980.  We compare the wages of truckload (TL) and less-than-truckload (LTL) OTR drivers who are paid by the mile and find that those in LTL firms are paid more, even though their jobs are naturally more contractible. We explore the potential reasons and conclude that the explanations offered in the standard literature are unlikely to be correct. We suggest alternatives. 

A report summarizing current industry practices in motor transportation and reviewing the relevant academic literature with respect to the effects of driver selection on commercial vehicle safety, for a Transportation Research Board program.

A report summarizing current industry practices in motor transportation and reviewing the relevant academic literature with respect to commercial vehicle safety in small motor carriers, for a Transportation Research Board program.

A report produced by the Transportation Research Board’s standing technical Committee AT060, Trucking Industry Research, designed to introduce non-specialists to the structure and characteristics of the modern U.S. trucking industry. 

This paper uses data from the Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) 1982-1997 to analyze changes in the true physical productivity (i.e., in ton-miles of output) of the truck fleet in the U.S. Because there is one driver per truck, this analysis also reveals changes in the labor productivity of truck drivers. We find that while observed physical productivity grew at about same rate as that of the whole economy (1.85% per year during this 15-year period), the actual increase in physical productivity at the truck level—holding traffic composition and trailer length changes fixed—was only .84% per year, half as fast.  Traffic composition change towards longer hauls (brought by the freight rate decreases of deregulation) accounted for .54% of the observed annual increase, and increased trailer lengths (from regulatory changes) accounted for about .50% of the observed annual increase. There is no sign of the productivity effects of computerized dispatching argued for in other papers.  
 

Fairness perceptions have long been argued to affect employee productivity, but it is hard to untangle the effects of the multiple factors that may drive them. This paper uses data from an employee survey of freight handlers at larger terminals of a unionized motor carrier to analyze some of the determinants of employee wage fairness perceptions. Because wages are fixed by national contract, but local labor market conditions vary, we can identify a causal relationship: higher unemployment or worse local wages for similar work led employees to see their wages as fairer.  

This paper uses data from the Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) to analyze changes in the composition and use of heavy and tractor-trailer trucks between truckload (TL) and less-than-truckload (LTL) for-hire carriers between 1992 and 1997.  A number of nuances are explored, but the main finding is that TL firms operated almost three times as many heavy trucks as did LTL firms, and they ran those trucks more than three times as many miles. Both types of firms shifted towards more long-haul operations between 1992 and 1997.

This paper uses Census Bureau data from the Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) 1977-1997 to analyze changes in the composition and use of heavy and tractor-trailer trucks between private carriers (firms hauling their own freight as part of another business) and for-hire carriers.  The economic deregulation for for-hire trucking was expected to lead to significant changes, and while the overall heavy truck fleet grew at about the same rate as the whole economy in this period, average miles-per-truck grew at a 50% faster rate, due to a 34% overall increase in the average miles per vehicle. While average miles increased in both private and for-hire trucking, the main underlying trend was a sharp increase in for-hire specialization in long-haul operations, with a corresponding dominance of private carriage in local operations. 

Using data originally collected by the Interstate Commerce Commission (which was closed in 1995) this paper analyzed changes in earnings of drivers and executives in medium-sized and large motor incumbent general commodity carriers between 1977 and 1986; formal economic deregulation occurred in 1980. Driver earnings dropped throughout this period, while executive earnings first fell and then rose, and additionally, executive pay rose at firms that broke the drivers’ union.