2020
“The Pre-Registry Commercial Driver's Medical Exam: Screening Sensitivity and Certification Lengths for Two Safety-related Medical Conditions”
This paper uses independent diagnostic data to analyze the screening effectiveness of the pre-Registry commercial driver's medical exam (CDME) for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and its sensitivity for hypertension. Certification lengths were also analyzed where relevant. Findings demonstrate that the pre-Registry CDME was ineffective in screening commercial drivers for OSA. Screening was better for hypertension, but incorrect certifications were given to many hypertensive drivers.
Burks SV, Anderson JE, Panda B, Haider HS, Haider R, Shi D, Li Y, Cagle M, Ostroushko D, Sun Z, Zaharick J, Hickman J, Mabry E, Berger M, Czeisler C, Kales SN, Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
Journal web page for this article
“Worker Overconfidence: Field Evidence and Implications for Employee Turnover and Firm Profits”
This paper analyzes a weekly estimate of the pay miles they expect to run in the following week in a large sample of new-to-the industry truck drivers who are paid by the mile. We find that those who are overconfident about their future pay are less likely to quit in a high-turnover setting, which increases their profitability for the employing firm.
M. Hoffman and S.V. Burks, Quantitative Economics, Vol 11, No. 1 (January), 2020, pp. 315-348
Journal web page for this article
2019
“Employer-Mandated Obstructive Sleep Apnea Treatment and Healthcare Cost Savings among Truckers”
This paper evaluates the effect of an employer-mandated obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) diagnosis and treatment program on non-OSA-program trucker medical insurance claim costs. The results suggest that the OSA program generates substantial savings.
Stephen V Burks, Jon E Anderson, Bibhudutta Panda, Rebecca Haider, Tim Ginader, Nicole Sandback, Darya Pokutnaya, Derek Toso, Natalie Hughes, Humza S Haider, Resa Brockman, Alice Toll, Nicholas Solberg, Jesse Eklund, Michael Cagle, Jeffery S Hickman, Erin Mabry, Mark Berger, Charles A Czeisler, Stefanos N Kales, Sleep
Journal web page for this article
“Is the U.S. Market for Truck Drivers Broken?”
This paper examines the structure of the overall truck driver labor market using nationally representative data from the US government, and focuses on the evidence about movements into and out of the occupation of heavy and tractor-trailer truck driver. It finds that the market for truck drivers works about as well as those for other blue-collar occupations, and that truckers come from, and leave to, occupations that make sense, and that occupational changes respond to economic incentives in the expected manner. It suggests that the primary source of the industry view that there is a long-term shortage of drivers is the fact that one part of the industry (long distance truckload) which employs about a fifth of all drivers of heavy trucks, has persistently high turnover at the level of firms (as opposed to changes of occupation), due to special conditions that require a separate analysis.
(This paper is a shorter version of the Institute for Labor Economics (IZA) Discussion Paper 11813, September, 2018, listed under “work in progress” below.)
S. Burks and K. Monaco, Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March, 2019
Download link: https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2019.5 .
2016
“Toward the Integration of Personality Theory and Decision Theory in the Explanation of Economic Behavior”
A paper using data on trainee truckers to examine the relationships between personality factors and economic preferences (risk and time preferences) and to then compare how both sets of characteristics do in predicting trucker outcomes such as body mass index, smoking behavior, credit score, job persistence, and heavy truck crashes.
A. Rustichini, C. DeYoung, J. Anderson, and S. Burks, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Vol. 64, October, 2016, pp. 122-137.
Journal web page for this article
Downloadable working paper version: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Paper #6750
“Non-Adherence with Employer-Mandated Sleep Apnea Treatment and Increased Risk of Serious Truck Crashes”
A paper analyzing the relationship between adherence to sleep apnea treatment among drivers with this disease and the driver's risk of having a preventable "DOT-reportable" (i.e. serious) crash, in the context of a trucking firm's internal program to screen, diagnose, and treat sleep apnea.
S.V. Burks, J.E. Anderson, M. Bombyk (UMM ’10), R. Haider (UMM ’13), D. Ganzhorn (UMM ’08), X. Jiao (UMM ’12), C. Lewis (UMM ’15), A. Lexvold (UMM ’13), H. Liu (UMM ’14), J. Ning (UMM ’14), A. Toll (UMM ’14), J.S. Hickman, E. Mabry, M. Berger, A .Malhotra, C.A. Czeisler, and S.N. Kales. Sleep, Vol 39, No. 5 (May), 2016, pp. 967-975.
PubMed webpage for this article (full text freely available)
DOCUMENTARY VIDEO
The results of this paper, along with some comments on the work life of truck drivers by Prof. Burks, are featured in a documentary about sleep apnea in truckers made by Sarah Moon, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, and released on YouTube in April, 2018: "Sleepers"
2015
“Cognitive Skills, Personality, and Economic Preferences in Collegiate Success”
A paper based on following the UMM student control group for the large sample of truckers using the protocol described in the 2008 paper “Using Behavioral Economic Field Experiments at a Large Firm.”
Stephen V. Burks, C. Lewis (UMM ’15), P. Kivi, A. Wiener (UMM ’15), J. Anderson, L. Götte, C. DeYoung, and A. Rustichini. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. Vol. 115, (July), 2015, pages 30-44.
Journal webpage for this article (full text freely available)
“The Value of Hiring through Employee Referrals”
A paper about employee referrals using data from three industries, including trucking.
S.V. Burks, B. Cowgill, M. Hoffman, and M. Housman. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 130, Issue 2 (May), 2015, pages 805-839.
Journal webpage for this article
2013
“Overconfidence and Social Signalling”
A paper about overconfidence based on two cognitive skills tests taken by 1,016 trainee truckers and estimates of their personal performance on the tests made by the truckers.
S.V. Burks, J. Carpenter, L. Götte, and A. Rustichini, in Review of Economic Studies Vol. 80, Issue 3 (July), 2013, pages 949-983.
Journal web page for this article
“Self-Selection and Variations in the Laboratory Measurement of Other-Regarding Preferences across Subject Pools: Evidence from One College Student and Two Adult Samples”
A paper comparing the behavior of trainee truckers to that of two control groups—UMM students and Morris-area adults—in an experiment measuring the willingness to cooperate with anonymous others at a net financial cost to oneself.
Winner of the Editor's Award for best paper published in Experimental Economics in 2013.
J. Anderson, S. Burks, J. Carpenter, L. Götte, K. Maurer (UMM ’09), Daniele Nosenzo, Ruth Potter (UMM ’12), Kim Rocha (UMM ’11), and Aldo Rustichini, in Experimental Economics, Vol. 16, Issue 2 (June), 2013, pp. 170-89.
Journal web page for this article (full text freely available)
2012
“Obesity is Associated with the Future Risk of Heavy Truck Crashes among Newly Recruited Commercial Drivers”
A paper analyzing the relationship between the body mass index (BMI) of trainee truckers and their risk of a vehicle accident on the job, controlling for demographic characteristics and for operational factors that affect the exposure to risk.
J. Anderson, S. Burks, M. Govada (UMM ’12), T. Steffen (UMM ’11), C. Thorne (UMM ’11) , S. Kales, and V. Varvarigou, in Accident Analysis and Prevention, (November, 2012).
Journal web page for this article (full text freely available)
“Big Truckers Run Bigger Risks,” story about this paper on the news web page of the journal Science
“Which Measures of Time Preference Best Predict Outcomes? Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment”
A paper comparing four different methods of measuring the willingness to wait for a higher future payment with respect their ability to predict several outcomes for driver trainees: body mass index, smoking status, credit score, and persistence on the job.
S. Burks, J. Carpenter, L. Götte, A. Rustichini, in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 84, Issue 1, (September, 2012), pp. 308-320.
Journal web page for this article (full text freely available)
2009
“Cognitive Skills Affect Economic Preferences, Strategic Behavior, and Job Attachment”
A paper on the relationship between the cognitive skills of truckers and their economic preferences, their social perceptions and behavior, and their job success.
S.V. Burks, J. Carpenter, L. Götte, and A. Rustichini, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, May 12, 2009; 106(19), 7745-7750.
PNAS webpage (full text freely available)
2008
“Using Behavioral Economic Field Experiments at a Large Firm: the Context and Design of the Truckers and Turnover Project”
A rather long paper describing the industry context, the research questions, and the research design of the project. A link to a working paper version of this document is provided below.
S. V. Burks, J. Carpenter, L. Götte, K. Monaco, K. Porter (UMM ’05), and A. Rustichini, in The Analysis of Firms and Employees: Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches, S. Bender, J. Lane, K. Shaw, F. Andersson, and T. Von Wachter (editors), NBER, University of Chicago Press (2008), 44-106.
Downloadable working paper version: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn Discussion Paper #2789
The project periodically issues work in the form of working papers
2023
“When Is High Turnover Cheaper? A Simple Model of Cost Tradeoffs in a Long‐Distance Truckload Motor Carrier, with Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications”
This paper challenges the trucking industry’s claims over forty years that there is a long-term shortage of truck drivers in a specific segment of the for-hire trucking industry: long-distance truckload (LD TL) motor freight. This segment is critical in long-distance freight movement, but employs only about 20% of tractor-trailer drivers. We show evidence that the source of the shortage perception is an ongoing business challenge that is inherently a feature of this part of trucking: very high driver turnover (93% over more than 25 years for large LD TL firms). We present a formal model of the cost trade-offs faced by LD TL firms, and show that high turnover is likely structural because it is part of the least-cost mixture of operational costs. We use the model also to show that three changes heralded by the industry, including teenaged drivers in interstate commerce, are likely to have opposite results to those the industry and policy makers expect.
Stephen V. Burks, Arne Kildegaard, Jason Miller, Kristen Monaco
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, DE Discussion Paper #16477
LINK: https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/16477
“State-Level Trucking Employment and the COVID-19 Pandemic in the U.S: Understanding Heterogenous Declines and Rebounds”
This paper examines the patterns of decline and recovery across states by month during the period of the pandemic shutdown and the first phase of the recovery. We observe that trucking firms both depend on non-trucking businesses for freight demand and also can compete with those businesses for workers, including for drivers. We find that state-level differences in manufacturing and natural resource extraction predict much of the variation in trucking employment, and that local and regional freight movements are especially important in state-level trucking recovery.
Jonathan Phares, Jason W. Miller, and Stephen V. Burks
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, DE Discussion Paper #16265
LINK: https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/16265
“Job Creation and Job Destruction Dynamics in the U.S. Truck Transportation Industry, 1995-2019”
This paper takes a first look at job creation and job destruction dynamics in truck transportation, with a special emphasis on the roles of carrier age and on job creation and destruction dynamics in the manufacturing sector, the source of demand for most trucking ton-miles. Using the U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Dynamics Statistics data we find that both job creation and job destruction are highest in new firms, and decline quickly with age. We also find that these dynamics are moderated by iemployment dynamics in manufacturing.
Jason W. Miller, Jonathan Phares, and Stephen V. Burks
NOTE: This paper, presented by co-author Phares in October, 2023, received the E. Grosvenor Plowman Award as the Best Paper of the 2023 Annual Research Symposium of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, DE Discussion Paper #16184
LINK: https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/16184
2018
“Is the Labor Market for Truck Drivers Broken? An Empirical Analysis Using Nationally Representative Data”
S. Burks and K. Monaco
This paper examines the structure of the overall truck driver labor market using nationally representative data from the US government, and focuses on the evidence about movements into and out of the occupation of heavy and tractor-trailer truck driver. It finds that while truckers haven’t done any better than other blue collar workers since 2000, the market for their services works about as well, and that truckers come from, and leave to, occupations that make sense, and that occupational changes respond to economic incentives in the expected manner.
Released as Discussion Paper #11813 by the Institute for Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, DE, in September, 2018.
Abstract and download link here: https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/11813/is-the-us-labor-market-for-truck-drivers-broken-an-empirical-analysis-using-nationally-representative-data
“Is the Labor Market for Truck Drivers Broken, and Will Autonomous Trucks Fix It?”
S. Burks, K. Monaco, and A. Kildegaard.
This paper examines the structure of the overall truck driver labor market in government data, and then focuses on the specific features of the segment of the market for drivers at long distance truckload (TL) motor carriers, presenting a model of TL motor carrier cost minimization, and applying that model to the question of what the introduction of autonomous trucks at different levels of automation might mean in the truck driver labor market. Presented at the 59th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Minneapolis, MN, April 11, 2018.
2016
“Lab Measures of Other-Regarding Preferences Can Predict Some Related on-the-Job Behavior: Evidence from a Large Scale Field Experiment”
A paper examining whether the willingness of trainee truckers to engage in costly pro-social behavior measured in a laboratory predicts costly pro-social behavior in two settings with similar material incentives on the job.
S. Burks, J. Anderson, M. Bombyk (UMM ’10), J. Carpenter, D. Ganzhorn (UMM ’08), L. Götte, D. Nosenzo, and A. Rustichini
Downloadable version: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Paper #9769
Related Publications by Project Participants
“Driver Selection Tests & Measurements”
A report summarizing current industry practices in motor transportation and reviewing the relevant academic literature with respect to the effects of driver selection on commercial vehicle safety, for a program of the Transportation Research Board.
R. Knipling, K. Starner (UMM ’10), C. Thorne (UMM ’10), and M. Barnes (UMM ’10), Commercial Truck & Bus Safety Synthesis Program (CTBSSP) Synthesis 21, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, January, 2012
“Safety Management in Small Motor Carriers”
A report summarizing current industry practices in motor transportation and reviewing the relevant academic literature with respect to commercial vehicle safety in small motor carriers, for a program of the Transportation Research Board.
R. Knipling and K. Nelson (UMM ’13), Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program (CTBSSP) Synthesis #22, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, January, 2012.
“Trucking 101: An Industry Primer”
A report produced by the Transportation Research Board’s standing technical Committee AT060, Trucking Industry Research, designed to introduce non-specialists to the structure of the modern U.S. trucking industry.
S. Burks, M. Belzer, Q. Kwon, S. Pratt, and S. Shackelford, Research Circular Number E-C146, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, DC, December, 2010.